Sotheby’s pointed out that its overall estimate range for the sales next week—which is between US$549.3 million and US$783.6 million, including day sales—is equal to or slightly higher than recent previous seasons, including May and November last year. 

Phillips will offer the priciest lot of the season at its Tuesday evening sale: Jean-Michel Basquiat’s Untitled (ELMAR), 1982, which is estimated to sell for between US$40 million and US$60 million. At Sotheby’s, there’s Francis Bacon’s Portrait of George Dyer Crouching, 1966, which is estimated to achieve between US$30 million and US$50 million at a contemporary evening auction on Monday. At its 21st-century evening sale on Tuesday, Christie’s is expected to sell Brice Marden’s Event, 2004-07, for between US$30 million and US$50 million. 

And there is far more, including significant works from Vincent van Gogh, Claude Monet, Andy Warhol, Joan Mitchell, and Georgia O’Keeffe, among others. 

After sinking 27% overall in 2023, auction sales continued to slide in the first quarter—down 18.3% from the same period a year earlier, according to ArtTactic’s RawFacts Auction Review. But results were mixed within the auction houses, as Christie’s sales were up 11.2% in the first quarter over a year earlier and Phillps saw a 55% drop mostly because it moved its Hong Kong sales to the second quarter this year, ArtTactic says. 

Nonetheless, a shakier environment is leading to different expectations between buyers and sellers as they attempt “to find a new equilibrium,” Drew Watson, head of art services, Bank of America Private Bank, said during a recent online presentation for clients on the market and the upcoming Tefaf New York art fair, which the bank sponsors. 

“We are seeing auction estimates gradually ratchet down, to come down to buyer expectations,” Watson said. “And we’ve seen some sellers who are a bit more price sensitive decide to sit on the sidelines and wait until the market moves further.”

Aside from the uncertainty in the world created by geopolitical upheaval, a U.S. election, and persistent inflation, investment-minded collectors are also considering the fact they can invest in a short-term Treasury and earn 5.5% versus investing in art and maybe walking away with nothing—in market returns, that is. 

“It just makes the decision to buy art from a pure financial perspective a little bit more difficult,” Watson said. 

Josh Baer, art advisor and publisher of the Baer Faxt newsletter, says estimates for evening-sale works (which tend to be priciest) are generally 20% to 30% lower than last fall. 

That means “things are less expensive, but they’re not inexpensive,” Baer says. “If you bought something 30 years ago for a million bucks and you thought it was worth $30 [million] and now it’s worth $22 [million]—I don’t think anybody is going to cry you a river.” 

The day sales of more mid-priced works taking place during New York’s marquee week are being played even more conservatively, with estimates down as much as 50%, he says.

“But estimates only tell part of the story,” Baer says. “There’s always a sense that low estimates can bring high prices.”

New York-based art advisor Megan Fox Kelly agrees estimates for the upcoming auctions are fairly conservative, noting that none are “shockingly low” or “shockingly high.” 

“We’re going through a kind of crazy time in terms of what’s happening in the world,” Fox Kelly says. “There just seems to be a bit of caution and with caution, a little bit of pullback.”

Yet, that doesn’t mean there isn’t enthusiasm for art, she says. The Venice Biennale fair in Italy “was packed,” and so was Frieze New York last weekend. The auctions are likely to be “extremely busy,” and Tefaf New York “will be fully packed and successful,” she says. “But it’s not quite as frothy and aggressive as it has been in the last couple of years.”

Given the uncertain backdrop, Fox Kelly has seen clients thinking about selling their works privately instead of at public auctions, “or holding off, if they don’t need to sell.”  

Private transactions can offer collectors more control over the sales process, particularly for objects that aren’t expected to generate aggressive bidding. Last year, private sales transactions rose at both Christie’s and Sotheby’s to US$1.2 billion each. 

Sellers are more comfortable with the private markets today because it allows them to discreetly test the market for the price they want, “and adjust that if need be depending on the feedback,” Watson said. By contrast, auction houses require consignors to agree to sell a work for a minimum price, which can’t be higher than the low estimate. 

“That estimate, even though it’s just an indication of value and referred to as a marketing tool to help encourage competitive bidding, does come with a certain amount of risk that the seller has to take on,” he said. 

Works on tap next week include several artists, such as Basquiat, Bacon, and Monet, who arguably “may benefit from more competitive bidding.” Several works from the collection of the late Miami arts patron Rosa de la Cruz are also likely to draw collectors “because of the provenance,” Watson said.

Artists who have been undervalued and underrepresented to date also could benefit, which is one reason why the fair includes significant pieces from female artists such as Mitchell, O’Keeffe, and Helen Frankenthaler. Auction prices for paintings by Mitchell reached record levels in November, with a 1959 untitled work fetching US$29 million, with fees. 

Sotheby’s is selling four Mitchell paintings from a single collection for a total estimate of more than US$40 million; Christie’s also is offering two works by the artist in their 20th-century sale: Crow Hill, 1966, with an estimate between US$7 million and US$10 million; and Chord X, 1987, with an estimate between US$10 million and US$15 million. 

Although she doesn’t know who consigned the works, or why, Fox Kelly says, “if somebody has owned a Joan Mitchell for a long time, and they’re thinking it’s time to part with it, this is certainly a moment when her market has shown not only strength and higher prices, but consistently higher prices for really good works.”

Another example is Leonora Carrington, a surrealist artist who is getting more attention. Sotheby’s is offering a pinnacle work by the artist, Les Distractions de Dagobert, 1945, for an estimate between US$12 million and US$18 million. 

“It’s a wonderful work and by an artist who I think we’re only starting to discover and to understand, Fox Kelly says. 

And at Christie’s, there’s also the collection of long-time TV producer Norman Lear and his wife, Lyn, which includes a 1967 David Hockney painting, A Lawn Being Sprinkled, with an estimate between US$25 million and US$35 million, and Ed Ruscha’s Truth, 1973, with an estimate between US$7 million and US$10 million. 

“People are going to be keen on that material, especially since it’s rather fresh to the market,” Fox Kelly says.