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Just over a week into President Trump’s second term and things are… confusing. The White House reversed course on its blanket freeze of federal grants and other funding programs, but tariffs on products from Mexico, Canada, and China are due to go into effect as soon as February 1.
Trump has been talking about tariffs for so long that it seems like it should be clearer now what they mean for the art trade. It’s not. But here’s what we do know.
Tariffs Everywhere
Before his inauguration, Trump promised to place tariffs of 25 percent on all imports from Mexico and Canada as soon as he returned to the Oval Office. Trump’s nominee to run the Department of Commerce, Wall Street CEO Howard Lutnick, said on Wednesday that both countries can avoid those tariffs if they act swiftly to stop fentanyl from crossing their borders into the U.S.
If the tariffs on Mexico go into effect, there could be import and export headaches for U.S. galleries headed to Zona Maco in February, as well as galleries representing artists based in Mexico. Raul Zorilla, a director at Kurimanzutto, which has locations in Mexico City and New York, said the gallery is “assessing with our consultants on what this will mean for the future movement of works originating in Mexico and traveling or being commercialized in New York.”
Trump has also mentioned imposing anywhere from 10 percent to 60 percent across-the-board tariffs on China, which would be on top of the 7.5 percent tariff that is already applied to paintings imported from China. A tariff of up to 20 percent could be pushed on all other trading partners, including the U.K. and the European Union.

President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on January 20, 2025 in Washington, D.C. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images.
More Red Tape
Edouard Gouin, who runs the art shipping and logistics firm Convelio, said that any long-term impacts of the tariffs could “unduly affect” the art industry, given the U.S.’s outsized share of the market. “Tariffs would generally raise the cost of doing business, and I think galleries would be the most impacted,” he said.
When it comes to art shipping, tariffs could have “Brexit-like implications” for U.S. trade, Gouin said, arguing that shipping costs, which have soared since the pandemic, would climb further. “There would be more red tape, more bureaucracy, all on a country-by-country basis.” U.S. collectors who buy works abroad may be less inclined to bring them back for this reason, which he believes may send them to freeports.
Overpromise, Underdeliver
Trump overpromised and underdelivered on tariffs in his first term. In May 2019, he announced a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican imports, set to gradually increase to 25 percent. That plan was scrapped by June. In 2017, Chinese art and antiquities were temporarily removed from a 6,000-strong list of goods subject to new tariffs imposed amid his first trade war with China. (The current 7.5 percent tariff was instituted in 2020.)
Still, even talking about tariffs can have an inflationary effect, as economist Claudia Sahm just noted in a Bloomberg op-ed. Art firms have been stretched thin due to inflation and geopolitical uncertainty over the last two years. Further strain is likely to hit the lower end of the gallery sector hardest. Rising overheads and slowing sales have forced small and mid-sized galleries to downsize or even close, and many are looking for quick economic relief—something these tariffs do not offer.